The Caribbean and surrounding regions could be in a rough ride this coming hurricane season.
Top forecasters in the U.S. are predicting 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes this year. It’s the highest number of hurricanes ever predicted in an April forecast by Colorado State University since the team began releasing forecasts in 1995.
A typical year averages about 14 tropical storms, seven of them spinning into hurricanes, based on weather records that date from 1991 to 2020, USA Today reports.
"We're coming out with a very aggressive forecast," said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the atmospheric science department at Colorado State.
“We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean," researchers said.
The Washington Post says a University of Pennsylvania team has issued a forecast that's considerably worse than the Colorado State model. The Pennsylvania study calls for 27 to 39 named storms, “with a best guess of 33.” The most on record was 30 named storms in 2020.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially starts June 1 and finishes November 30, with most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October, CBS News states. Hurricane activity tends to peak in mid-September, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
“Warm sea surface temperatures combined with a warm tropical Atlantic — all intensified by La Niña conditions — set high expectations for an extremely active period. La Niña conditions, which are set to arrive this summer, decrease vertical wind shear and increase favorable conditions for hurricanes,” CBS said.
