In its latest Economic Impact Reports (EIR), the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) revealed that Canada and the North American region's Travel & Tourism sectors could reach pre-pandemic levels by next year.
Canada
The WTTC forecasts that Canada's travel & tourism sector's contribution to its gross domestic product (GDP) could reach CAD $157 billion in 2023, just 0.8 per cent short of 2019 levels.
In 2022 alone, the sector’s contribution to GDP is expected to grow 25.4 per cent over 2021 to CAD $138 billion, 5.3 per cent of Canada's total economic GDP. However, employment levels in travel & tourism are predicted to grow at a slower rate, only 3 per cent in 2022, reaching just over 1.5 million jobs.
Over the next decade, the sector's GDP contribution in Canada is expected to grow at an average of 4.4 per cent annually, more than twice the 1.9 per cent growth rate of the country’s overall economy, to reach nearly CAD $213 billion, or 6.8 per of the total economy, by 2032. WTTC's forecast also says the travel & tourism sector is expected to create more than half a million jobs over the next decade, averaging more than 50,000 new jobs every year.
“After the agony suffered by Canada’s Travel & Tourism, businesses across the country can finally breathe a sigh of relief as the sector begins to recover from the ravages of the pandemic,” said Julia Simpson, WTTC President & CEO. “Following two years of severe and highly disruptive travel restrictions, which decimated the sector, the outlook for the future is much brighter for both jobs and the economy.”
Before the pandemic, Canada’s travel & tourism sector’s contribution to GDP was 6.3 per cent (CAD $158.1 billion) in 2019, falling to just 3.7 per cent (CAD $88.8 billion) in 2020, which represented a 43.8 per cent loss.
In 2021, the sector's contribution to GDP climbed 24.4 per cent year on year, to reach CAD $110.4 billion. The sector also saw a recovery of more than 116,000 travel & tourism jobs last year, representing a positive rise of 8.4 per cent to nearly 1.5 million.
The WTTC notes the travel & tourism sector’s contribution to the economy and employment "could have been higher" if it weren’t for the impact of the Omicron variant, which led to the recovery faltering around the world, with many countries reinstating travel restrictions.
North America
In a separate EIR, the WTTC revealed the North America's overall travel and tourism sector's contribution to GDP is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.9 per cent over the next decade, outpacing the 2 per cent growth rate for the regional economy and reaching USD $3.1 trillion by 2032. In addition, the Council predicted that the sector in North America is expected to create 9.5 million new jobs between 2022 and 2032, with an average annual growth rate of 3.7 per cent.
In 2022, the travel and tourism sector sector’s contribution to GDP is forecast to grow 38.2 per cent to reach USD $2.1 trillion, while employment is expected to rise 19 per cent by the end of the year. By 2023, the WTTC report shows that economic recovery is predicted to reach pre-pandemic heights similar to 2019. Employment rates are separately expected to reach pre-pandemic levels by 2024.
“The pandemic cost North America’s travel and tourism sector a staggering 8.85 million jobs and nearly $1.1 trillion in GDP in 2020.” said Simpson, adding, “the antigen test for returning U.S. citizens and visitors is redundant. Other economies have scrapped all restrictions [and] the current antigen test is slowing the U.S. recovery.”
In 2021, North America's travel and tourism GDP contributions remained 33.7 per cent below 2019 levels at USD $1.5 trillion, which the WTTC cites was in part due to the impact of the omicron variant and countries reinstating travel restrictions. According to the report, the U.S. and Mexico led inbound arrivals and outbound departures in 2021, respectively, fuelling the resurgence of the sector for North America.
Pre-pandemic, North America’s travel and tourism sector contribution to the total economy was 8.9 per cent (USD $2.3 trillion) in 2019, falling to 5 percent (USD $1.25 trillion) in 2020.
