WORST-CASE SCENARIO

Canada Likely Preparing Contingency Plans for Canadians in Cuba

Cuba’s tourism officials assured Canadian airlines and travel advisors during a trip to Toronto and Montreal last month, attended by Open Jaw, that the island's resorts and the airline sector would not be affected by fuel shortages.

But Canadian experts say contingency planning to bring travellers home safely is almost certainly underway should conditions deteriorate.

Scenarios under consideration could include airport fuel supply issues (despite promises to Canadian airlines), disruptions from civil unrest, or essential infrastructure workers being unable to reach their jobs—concerns underscored by reports and photographs of massive car lineups for fuel in Havana on 30 JAN.

Matthew Levin, Canada’s ambassador to Cuba from 2010 to 2013, said Cuba’s government is unlikely to collapse, given the population’s familiarity with scarcity. However, in an interview with the Canadian Press, Levin said that Global Affairs Canada is likely coordinating with tour operators to ensure Canadians have support if the situation worsens.

“I’m sure that consular operations at Global Affairs Canada is preparing scenarios, and I’m sure they’re in contact with the tour operators who are responsible for moving the vast majority of Canadians who go to Cuba,” he said.

For years, Cuba has been a top destination for Canadian sunseekers, currently with about 120 flights a week from cities including Toronto, Montreal, Quebec City, Halifax, St. John’s, Edmonton, Winnipeg, and Vancouver during the peak winter season.

On Saturday (31JAN), US President Donald Trump said the administration is "starting to talk to Cuba."  It comes in the wake of the US leader threatening to impose tariffs on countries that supply oil to Cuba, including Mexico, as part of a broader effort to pressure Havana and cut off its energy lifelines.

At the Toronto event hosted by the Cuba Tourism Board in December, Lessner Gomez, Marketing Director, Ministry of Tourism for Cuba, opined that “With the good relationship we have with Canada, we could probably secure a lot of fuel from Canada—we’re only seven days by boat!”

The Canadian government has already warned travellers about food and electricity shortages in Cuba.

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