The "Trump Slump” is shaping up to be a massive double-digit, billion-dollar economic fallout for the US — far worse than the US$2.1 billion loss initially warned from a drop in Canadian visitors alone.
The U.S. economy is on track to lose US$12.5 billion in international travel spending in 2025, with totals expected to fall to below US$169 billion, down from US$181 billion in 2024, according to an Economic Impact Research reported released on 13MAY by the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC).
While the WTTC report doesn’t isolate the Canadian impact, the scale of the projected loss suggests an earlier estimate from the U.S. Travel Association — a 10% drop in Canadian visitors costing the US economy US$2.1 billion, as reported by Open Jaw in April — is undercooked.
The US$12.5 billion figure also makes clear that US tariffs are dragging down US-bound travel from across the globe, not just Canada. Still, in an interview with The New York Times, WTTC President and CEO Julia Simpson specifically highlighted Canada, suggesting that no other country has reduced its travel to the US as significantly as Canadians.
“The near neighbours, Canada and Mexico, are not travelling,” said Simpson. “There are also concerns over visas — whether they’ve got the right visa or might accidentally get arrested, which has made people quite fearful.”
“While other nations are rolling out the welcome mat, the US government is putting up the ‘closed’ sign,” she added. “I’m quite sure President Trump, with his background in hospitality, understands that holiday makers just want to come and enjoy the beautiful country and the people and the history and then go home again. They don’t want to live there.”
Simpson emphasized that ignoring international tourism to the US is a costly mistake, as foreign travellers spend far more than domestic ones. Foreign visitors spend an average of US$4,000 per trip — eight times more than their domestic counterparts, according to the U.S. Travel Association.
Meanwhile, US travel services exports — which include spending on hotels, restaurants and other services by international visitors — dropped by more than 7% in March, marking the steepest decline in nearly 25 years outside of the pandemic, according to the National Bank of Canada. It warns the slump could impact production, jobs and the bottom line for companies that rely on foreign tourists.
