International travel demand for the first half of 2026 is showing modest gains overall, but with large regional contrasts — Asia is surging ahead, while interest in travelling to the Caribbean is slowing, a new study says.
Data from Barcelona-based global travel intelligence firm Mabrian finds that Eastern and Southeast Asia together now represent nearly one-third (31.7%) of worldwide international travel demand, cementing the continent’s position as the primary driver of global tourism activity. Japan continues to dominate regional growth, while emerging destinations such as Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines fuel Southeast Asia’s rise as a global “bucket-list” region.
Western Asia, led by key Gulf region nations, is also gaining ground. Between January and June 2026, Saudi Arabia’s Jeddah and Riyadh, as well as Doha, Qatar, rank among the top 10 destinations globally for growth in travel intent. The region’s international air capacity is projected to rise by 3.6% in the coming months, underlining its increased appeal among international travellers.
Caribbean Feels the Strain
By contrast, early-2026 data reveals a softening of travel intent for the Caribbean across global, US, and European markets following political tensions in the region earlier this month.
Mabrian’s Share of Searches Index, based on flight searches from the first half of January 2026 to travel from January to March 2026, shows a decline in global market share for The Caribbean.
The contraction is more pronounced in the US market between January and March 2026, where the Caribbean loses market share of outbound travel demand, falling from 9.1% to 7.6% year over year. The sharpest decline was in January, with an unstable recovery thereafter.
This weakening is mainly driven by reduced demand for the Mexican Caribbean, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Aruba, and the Colombian Caribbean.
“The resilience of Caribbean destinations will be key to rapidly regaining market confidence, especially if conditions in the area stabilize in the short term. To do so is key for destinations to monitor source market perception and adapt their strategies,” one Mabrian official said.
A Diverging Global Outlook
Globally, Mabrian’s analysis finds a 5.9% increase in international air capacity for the next six months compared to the same period last year. However, demand patterns remain uneven: while Asia and the Gulf are gaining momentum, Southern Europe, North America, and Northern Europe are tracking slightly downward for early 2026.
Mabrian attributes these softer results in traditional regions to seasonal dynamics — the data captures the shoulder and early summer periods, not the high-demand summer months when these destinations typically peak.
Despite regional volatility — from unrest in the Caribbean to protests in parts of the Middle East — Mabrian’s findings suggest global travel demand remains remarkably resilient, adapting quickly to shifting perceptions and emerging value-for-money opportunities.
