Experts say Canadians’ resolve to avoid travel to the U.S. will only deepen given U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest tariff threat.
Trump on 24FEB said he will go ahead with a 25% tariff on most imports from Canada. The tariffs are due to start March 4, despite Canada making substantial moves to improve border security and reduce the small amount of fentanyl trickling into the U.S. from north of the border.
“The tariffs are going forward on time, on schedule,” Trump told reporters at the White House. “This is an abuse that took place for many, many years.”
Survey after survey has shown that roughly one-half of Canadians say they’ll reduce or avoid travel to the U.S. given what they believe is an unwarranted financial attack.
“Now that the tariffs are confirmed, the negative attitudes will strengthen and lead to more Canadians avoiding the USA as a travel destination,” Frederic Dimanche, Professor/Director, Ted Rogers School of Hospitality and Tourism Management at Toronto Metropolitan University told Open Jaw. “Travellers who had planned to go to Florida or other southern states will either find alternative sun destinations (e.g., the Caribbean, Mexico, or Central America) or will save money for trips to be taken later.”
“We’ve already seen a softening in demand for cross-border travel for both leisure and business travel from Canada to the States,” said Amra Durakovic, Head of PR and Communications, Canada, for the Flight Centre Travel Group. “It’s been gaining momentum since November.”
Durakovic said Canadians have been in a bit of a “holding pattern” while they wait to see what Trump would do. If he goes ahead as planned, Canadians who have been on the fence might rethink their travel plans to the States.
The Toronto Star reports that, following Trump’s remarks, a U.S. officials said the fate of the special 25% levy on Canadian and Mexican goods was still to be determined.
Still, the mere threat of tariffs on Canada, as well as the low Canadian dollar, has had many north-of-the-border travellers cancelling U.S. visits.
Last year was a very busy one for European tourism, but Durakovic said Flight Centre is already seeing a year over year increase in demand in Europe trips from Canada.
“That’s based on both our actual booking insights and on anecdotal evidence from our staff,” she told Open Jaw.
Durakovic noted that Canadian carriers have been increasing their capacity to Europe. WestJet recently announced new summer flights from Halifax to Amsterdam, while Air Canada this year will launch new routes to Prague, Naples and Porto.
Air Canada recently said it would trim its capacity to some U.S. destinations, including Florida, Arizona and Las Vegas, because of reduced Canadian demand. WestJet has said that interest in its U.S. flights has dropped by 25%, a figure it said is “not sustainable.”
The U.S. Travel Association has warned that even a 10% drop in the number of Canadians visiting the States could result in a $2.1 billion hit for the U.S. economy, and the loss of 14,000 jobs.
A study by Blue Cross released on 25FEB said 47% of Canadians surveyed said last fall’s election results make them less likely to visit the U.S. in the next 12 months.
Bob Bloomer, a retiree from Cobourg, Ontario who has regularly visited Florida for 25 years said he’s drawn a line in the sand for this year and cancelled his trip.
"Basically just frustration listening to Trump and all his rhetoric about how Canada's taking advantage of the U.S. with the trade agreement that basically he engineered," he told the CBC.
Dimanche said implementation of the tariffs could be a boost for domestic tourism.
“Also, the tariffs are likely to lead to a recession, and a recession may weaken even more the Canadian dollar. This would also contribute to Canadians staying in Canada for upcoming trips.”
